PRO-CON: A look around the corner

Will housing in Atlanta rebound in the first half of 2009?

By Tom Sabulis
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sunday, November 16, 2008

YES

Chuck Lewis, president and CEO, One Georgia Bank

With fewer new homes being built and prices declining, Atlanta’s residential real estate market is poised to show some signs of stabilization in the later stages of the second quarter of 2009. The rebound isn’t likely to happen any sooner than that, for one main reason: Consumer confidence —- the most important ingredient in our economic cocktail —-is lacking. Without a healthy level of consumer confidence, there can be no equilibrium between buyers and sellers, and no stabilization in home prices or mortgage products. Once activity picks up in the market and consumer confidence improves, that equilibrium will be restored. Demand will rise and a greater number of mortgage products will be delivered. We’ll begin to see the Atlanta housing market bounce back.

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NO

Neal Creech, president, Creech Custom Builders

While the government bailout has helped increase confidence in the credit markets and minor price gains have been reported —- leading some industry experts to say we’re close to bottoming out —- recovery for Atlanta housing as a whole will continue to be slow-going. The rebound in residential real estate for this market, overall, isn’t primed to occur as early as the first half of the new year.

What we’re more likely to see is small pockets of rebound. In Buckhead, for example, the market for new homes has seen a decline as buyers have become more astute and credit has tightened. But land values have stayed strong, in-migration from other cities and other neighborhoods is increasing, and home builders may soon see fit to embark on new projects there again. The market in Buckhead is very close to bottoming out, and could be ready for a turnaround as early as the first half of 2009.

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